2155 Wharf Rd #12

Capitola, CA 95010

$374,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 262 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax + insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$596
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $-226/mo
• Annual: $-2,711/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $104,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in CA, #1,819 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Soquel Union Elementary (suburban): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #302 of 1,400 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Main Street Elementary (413 students, 24% FRL); New Brighton Middle (648 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $375k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.6% in Capitola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?