2155 Wharf Rd #12 · Capitola, CA 95010

$374,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 262 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $474k · 21% under $596/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• South facing
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• SOUTH FACING
• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• INDOOR WASHER
• INDOOR DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in an incorporated area; Park home serial numbers available
• HOA & community: Property is in an HOA; fees include common area maintenance; HOA fee listed

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem parking; Carport with 2 spaces (space #12)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; Park home on leased land (unit will remain)
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Living area reported as 1,080 (source: assessor)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl/Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower and tub
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating
• Interior features: Laundry includes washer and dryer; Carpet and vinyl/linoleum flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.6% in Capitola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in CA, #1,819 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Soquel Union Elementary (suburban): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #302 of 1,400 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Main Street Elementary (413 students, 24% FRL); New Brighton Middle (648 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $375k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $329,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $474,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Capitola Ave #40	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-3%)	2mo	$685,000	$652	66
3710 Gross Rd #12	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+2%)	6mo	$430,000	$391	65
4300 Soquel Dr #216	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-4%)	13mo	$355,000	$341	63
3060 Porter St #28	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	2mo	$269,000	$240	62
4160 Jade St #50	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+2%)	3mo	$750,000	$679	59
920 Capitola Ave #56	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (-5%)	8mo	$540,000	$524	59
930 Rosedale Ave #64	0.57mi	2/2.0	980 (-9%)	1mo	$369,000	$377	57
3060 Porter St #27	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,070 (-1%)	7mo	$400,000	$374	55
3710 Gross Rd #17	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-9%)	3mo	$510,000	$520	55
4300 Soquel Dr #102	0.52mi	2/2.0	980 (-9%)	7mo	$430,000	$439	54
4160 Jade St #37	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-7%)	11mo	$435,000	$435	44
920 Capitola Ave #65	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (+12%)	14mo	$599,000	$495	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-64,738
• Equity at exit: $55,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-30,008
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95010

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,624/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$596
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,034

Max offer price $342,204

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-96	+0% $-226	+5% $-355	+10% $-485
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-374	+0% $-226	+5% $-78	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-131	base $-226	+0.5pp $-323	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 Gilroy Dr Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	969	$4,750	$4.90	22d	1	0.32mi
1765 46th Ave Unit A Capitola, CA	3.0	2.0	1158	$5,299	$4.58	22d	1	0.33mi
912 Capitola Ave Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,145	$3.15	14d	1	0.45mi
850 Rosedale Ave Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	815	$2,895	$3.55	14d	3	0.52mi
1405 45th Ave #4 Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$3,450	$3.73	6d	1	0.61mi
600 Park Ave Unit 1b Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	762	$2,750	$3.61	15d	1	0.80mi
5485 Soquel Dr Soquel, CA	3.0	1.5	1086	$3,565	$3.28	22d	1	0.96mi
815 Balboa Ave Capitola, CA	2.0	1.5	704	$3,770	$5.36	22d	1	0.96mi
1144 Callas Ln #2 Capitola, CA	3.0	1.5	1134	$3,200	$2.82	15d	1	1.00mi
2500 Soquel Dr Santa Cruz, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$3,381	$3.98	14d	1	1.00mi
1786 Reinelt Ave Unit 04 Santa Cruz, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$3,250	$3.61	22d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $596 · $7,152/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $374,900 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,900 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,900 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $374,900 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,900 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,900 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,900 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,900 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $374,900 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,900 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,900 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,900 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,900 Active 241 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $374,900 Active 240 DOM
18. 2026-02-22
    price $374,900 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

19. 2026-02-22
    price $374,900 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

20. 2026-01-06
    status Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

21. 2026-01-06
    status Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

22. 2025-12-27
    status Pending 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

23. 2025-12-27
    historical Contingent 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

24. 2025-10-02
    listed $388,000 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

25. 2025-10-02
    listed $388,000 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Capitola Coastal Lifestyle. Back on the market because the HOA would not allow the buyer's 2 dogs. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is south facing for plenty of sun on a corner lot with an enclosed porch/deck that leads to a quaint fenced yard. Indoor Washer & Dryer with easy access. This home is part of the "Capitola Affordable Home" so income restrictions apply. See the disclosures for the limits. Must be your primary residence. If you think you may qualify you can ask for more information. I will assemble some information in the disclosures link.

26. 2010-12-16
    soldstatus $163,000 Sold
27. 2010-11-30
    listed $163,000
28. 2010-11-30
    historical
29. 2003-04-07
    historical
30. 2003-01-24
    soldstatus $134,000
31. 2002-09-22
    listed $134,000
32. 2000-10-10
    historical
33. 2000-09-07
    soldstatus $126,000
34. 2000-04-16
    listed $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$5,624
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,598
• − Management: −$3,598
• − HOA: −$7,152
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable loss: −$8,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,106
• After-tax cash flow: $-605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soquel Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637290
• Math proficiency: 49% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,999
• Composite: 51.13/100
• National rank: #3779
• State rank: #302 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Capitola

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1819

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Capitola, CA
• County: Santa Cruz County · 225,113 people
• City population: 8,707
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,707
• Household income: $105,236
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 299,046 people
• By 2030: 311,246 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 332,813 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 352,797 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 406,837 · +36.0%
• By 2100: 435,763 · +45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+54.4) · D 75.3% · R 20.9% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+54.4 2020: D+60.3 2016: D+57.3 2012: D+54.1 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.59%
• Current HPI: 356.4526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.58%
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+190.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $374,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $374,900 MLSListings
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — MLSListings
• 2025-12-27 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-27 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2025-10-02 Listed $388,000 MLSListings
• 2025-10-02 Listed $388,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-12-16 Sold (MLS) $163,000 MLSListings
• 2010-11-30 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2010-11-30 Listed $163,000 MLSListings
• 2003-04-07 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2003-01-24 Sold (MLS) $134,000 MLSListings
• 2002-09-22 Listed $134,000 MLSListings
• 2000-10-10 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2000-09-07 Sold (MLS) $126,000 MLSListings
• 2000-04-16 Listed $129,000 MLSListings