14 Old Jenson Hollow Rd

Pineville, KY 40977

$79,900C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $150/mo
• Annual: $1,804/yr
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($889 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#195 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bell County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #91 of 165 in KY (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.