14 Old Jenson Hollow Rd · Pineville, KY 40977

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1993 0.60 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The views of the mountains are breath taking. What better way to have your morning coffee than sitting on your front porch watching the sun come up. A well-maintained 3-bedroom house in beautiful Jenson, KY, 10 minutes outside Pineville! On a 0.60 acre parcel, the house is in great condition, with a renovated kitchen, but you may consider other minor upgrades such as the exterior doors and replacing the bathtub. Despite being in the heart of Kentucky's mountains, this parcel is very flat, and the property comes with an additional 0.15-acre parcel that is pure green space! The property includes a carport for 4+ cars, wrap around deck and lots of space to spread out.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Carport
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FRONT PORCH
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FLAT PARCEL
• ADDITIONAL GREEN SPACE
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($889 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#195 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bell County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #91 of 165 in KY (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,395
• Equity at exit: $18,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $19,781
• Equity at exit: $17,890

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40977

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,900 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 177 DOM
6. 2025-12-04
   listed $79,900 Active 678-char remark

   Show marketing remark (678 chars)

   The views of the mountains are breath taking. What better way to have your morning coffee than sitting on your front porch watching the sun come up. A well-maintained 3-bedroom house in beautiful Jenson, KY, 10 minutes outside Pineville! On a 0.60 acre parcel, the house is in great condition, with a renovated kitchen, but you may consider other minor upgrades such as the exterior doors and replacing the bathtub. Despite being in the heart of Kentucky's mountains, this parcel is very flat, and the property comes with an additional 0.15-acre parcel that is pure green space! The property includes a carport for 4+ cars, wrap around deck and lots of space to spread out.

7. 2025-09-26
   soldstatus $55,000
8. 2025-07-10
   historical
9. 2025-03-21
   price $99,900
10. 2025-01-09
    listed $109,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$854
• − Management: −$854
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$136
• After-tax cash flow: $1,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bell County
• NCES district ID: 2100390
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $27,032
• Composite: 26.86/100
• National rank: #7102
• State rank: #91 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pineville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #9690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.33%
• Current HPI: 68.6113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $79,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-10 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $99,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $109,900 Knoxville MLS