606 Hickory St

Fenton, MI 48430

$199,999D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $6/mo
• Annual: $76/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($76/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.5% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: State Road Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 425 students, 28% FRL); Andrew G Schmidt Middle School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 717 students, 36% FRL); Fenton Senior High School (math 35% / reading 72%, grade C-, #125 of 713 statewide, top 18%, 1,102 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.