3822 Spring Run Ln

Melissa, TX 75454

$430,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,802/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$848
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-922/mo
• Annual: $-11,067/yr
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.19%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-922 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (34.8% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $267k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Melissa ISD (suburban): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #24 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harry Mckillop El (math 74% / reading 68%, grade A-, #128 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 955 students, 18% FRL); Melissa Middle (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,232 students, 0% FRL); Melissa H S (math 69% / reading 76%, grade B+, #94 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 1,485 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 24% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Melissa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.