3822 Spring Run Ln · Melissa, TX 75454

$430,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2008 8,276 sqft lot $154/sqft · 18% below area Est $526k · 18% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Elegant 5-bedroom, 4-bath home on a premium corner lot in the desirable Hunter Creek neighborhood of Melissa, TX. A charming front porch welcomes you into a home featuring soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a beautiful stone fireplace anchoring the main living area. The spacious kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry and counter space, a huge island, counter seating, breakfast nook, and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The first-floor primary suite includes a private ensuite and generous space, complemented by a second upstairs primary with ensuite. An expansive upstairs family room offers endless possibilities. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a small patio, perfect for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Exceptional curb appeal, comfort, and versatility throughout. New Roof and foundation in 2025.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Premium corner lot
• Charming front porch

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• BEAUTIFUL STONE FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• HUGE ISLAND
• BREAKFAST NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-922 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Melissa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Melissa ISD (suburban): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #24 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harry Mckillop El (math 74% / reading 68%, grade A-, #128 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 955 students, 18% FRL); Melissa Middle (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,232 students, 0% FRL); Melissa H S (math 69% / reading 76%, grade B+, #94 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 1,485 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 24% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,085 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.19%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $526,146
• List price: $430,000
• Delta: -18.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3313 Creekhaven Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,845 (+2%)	1mo	$506,900	$178	79
3009 Sierra Trl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,752 (-2%)	0mo	$533,958	$194	75
3502 Pebble Ct	0.37mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,868 (+2%)	2mo	$495,000	$173	68
3407 Windsong Ct	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,485 (-11%)	2mo	$450,000	$181	63
2701 Garrison Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,916 (+4%)	1mo	$599,999	$206	62
3512 Abingdon Ave	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,004 (+7%)	2mo	$595,000	$198	62
3605 Sky Ridge Ln	0.21mi	4/4.0	3,186 (+14%)	2mo	$825,000	$259	62
4308 Spruce Rd	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,669 (-5%)	2mo	$415,000	$155	62
4307 Magnolia Rd	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,555 (-9%)	1mo	$489,000	$191	57
3508 Revere Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,634 (-6%)	0mo	$450,000	$171	50
2903 Ellsworth Ave	0.64mi	4/3.5	3,177 (+14%)	0mo	$575,000	$181	46
4407 Milrany Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,479 (-12%)	1mo	$465,000	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-136,484
• Equity at exit: $64,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-225,636
• Equity at exit: $37,179

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75454

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$669 /mo · $8,026/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,970

Max offer price $267,085

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-679	-5% $-801	+0% $-922	+5% $-1,044	+10% $-1,166
Rent	-10% $-1,144	-5% $-1,033	+0% $-922	+5% $-812	+10% $-701
Rate	-1.0pp $-706	-0.5pp $-813	base $-922	+0.5pp $-1,034	+1.0pp $-1,147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3102 Bunting Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.5	3101	$3,295	$1.06	45d	1	0.22mi
3621 Spring Run Ln Melissa, TX	5.0	4.0	2760	$2,829	$1.02	45d	1	0.23mi
3404 Herron Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2445	$2,450	$1.00	9d	1	0.27mi
4009 Gray Wolf Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,350	$1.20	20d	1	0.28mi
3411 Kodiak Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,700	$1.12	45d	1	0.30mi
3303 Robin Trl Melissa, TX	5.0	4.0	3637	$3,400	$0.93	26d	1	0.32mi
3600 White Summit Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,350	$1.16	20d	1	0.34mi
2904 Middleton Dr Melissa, TX	5.0	4.5	3703	$3,800	$1.03	45d	1	0.40mi
3216 Creekhaven Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,795	$1.20	12d	1	0.43mi
4006 Cottontail Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2266	$2,600	$1.15	20d	1	0.44mi
4222 Cherry Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1999	$2,299	$1.15	26d	1	0.49mi
2903 Diamondback Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1956	$2,400	$1.23	26d	1	0.54mi
4302 Spruce Rd Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,500	$1.28	45d	1	0.55mi
2910 Winchester Ave Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2225	$2,350	$1.06	45d	1	0.56mi
2823 Diamondback Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2773	$2,800	$1.01	26d	1	0.56mi
3404 Running Stream Way Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	3443	$3,500	$1.02	23d	1	0.57mi
3307 Willena Rd Melissa, TX	4.0	3.5	3271	$3,295	$1.01	0d	1	0.58mi
2818 Diamondback Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,445	$1.25	45d	1	0.58mi
3228 Willena Rd Melissa, TX	5.0	4.0	3272	$2,795	$0.85	45d	1	0.63mi
3509 Clara Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,700	$1.31	6d	1	0.63mi
3511 Clara Dr Melissa, TX	5.0	3.0	2771	$3,050	$1.10	14d	1	0.63mi
3217 Willena Rd Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2213	$2,680	$1.21	7d	1	0.64mi
3608 Cottonwood Rd Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1970	$2,050	$1.04	9d	1	0.72mi
3605 Cottonwood Rd Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,250	$1.07	22d	1	0.75mi
3611 Redwood Cir Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.80mi
3101 Spanish Oak Trl Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2360	$2,195	$0.93	26d	1	0.85mi
3100 Whispering Pine Blvd Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2473	$2,550	$1.03	45d	1	0.95mi
3105 Whispering Pine Blvd Melissa, TX	3.0	3.0	2353	$2,450	$1.04	45d	1	0.95mi
3515 Washington Dr Melissa, TX	5.0	4.5	3595	$3,800	$1.06	26d	1	0.96mi
2613 Patriot Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.5	2756	$2,850	$1.03	45d	1	1.03mi
2614 Fritz St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,500	$1.19	14d	1	1.08mi
3007 Hickory Rdg Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,150	$1.10	18d	1	1.12mi
2595 Bryant St Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2432	$2,350	$0.97	45d	1	1.25mi
2308 Knox Way Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2013	$2,350	$1.17	0d	1	1.25mi
2510 Lovegrass Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$2,450	$1.23	20d	1	1.31mi
3513 Sunflower St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.5	2140	$2,400	$1.12	0d	1	1.36mi
2401 Lovegrass Ln Melissa, TX	5.0	4.0	3173	$3,024	$0.95	26d	1	1.39mi
3810 Honeycomb Holw Melissa, TX	5.0	3.5	2777	$2,850	$1.03	26d	1	1.42mi
3211 N Central St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.5	2600	$2,400	$0.92	14d	1	1.48mi
2221 Grassland Ave Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $430,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $430,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $430,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $430,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $435,000 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Elegant 5-bedroom, 4-bath home on a premium corner lot in the desirable Hunter Creek neighborhood of Melissa, TX. A charming front porch welcomes you into a home featuring soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a beautiful stone fireplace anchoring the main living area. The spacious kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry and counter space, a huge island, counter seating, breakfast nook, and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The first-floor primary suite includes a private ensuite and generous space, complemented by a second upstairs primary with ensuite. An expansive upstairs family room offers endless possibilities. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a small patio, perfect for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Exceptional curb appeal, comfort, and versatility throughout. New Roof and foundation in 2025.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $440,000 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Elegant 5-bedroom, 4-bath home on a premium corner lot in the desirable Hunter Creek neighborhood of Melissa, TX. A charming front porch welcomes you into a home featuring soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a beautiful stone fireplace anchoring the main living area. The spacious kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry and counter space, a huge island, counter seating, breakfast nook, and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The first-floor primary suite includes a private ensuite and generous space, complemented by a second upstairs primary with ensuite. An expansive upstairs family room offers endless possibilities. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a small patio, perfect for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Exceptional curb appeal, comfort, and versatility throughout. New Roof and foundation in 2025.

18. 2026-03-12
    price $450,000 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Elegant 5-bedroom, 4-bath home on a premium corner lot in the desirable Hunter Creek neighborhood of Melissa, TX. A charming front porch welcomes you into a home featuring soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a beautiful stone fireplace anchoring the main living area. The spacious kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry and counter space, a huge island, counter seating, breakfast nook, and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The first-floor primary suite includes a private ensuite and generous space, complemented by a second upstairs primary with ensuite. An expansive upstairs family room offers endless possibilities. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a small patio, perfect for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Exceptional curb appeal, comfort, and versatility throughout. New Roof and foundation in 2025.

19. 2026-02-14
    listed $499,999 Active 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Elegant 5-bedroom, 4-bath home on a premium corner lot in the desirable Hunter Creek neighborhood of Melissa, TX. A charming front porch welcomes you into a home featuring soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and a beautiful stone fireplace anchoring the main living area. The spacious kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry and counter space, a huge island, counter seating, breakfast nook, and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The first-floor primary suite includes a private ensuite and generous space, complemented by a second upstairs primary with ensuite. An expansive upstairs family room offers endless possibilities. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a small patio, perfect for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Exceptional curb appeal, comfort, and versatility throughout. New Roof and foundation in 2025.

20. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus Sold 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Back on the market, buyers' financing fell through. This hard to find Hunters Creek 5 BR home in Melissa ISD has it all, PLUS a huge corner lot! Soaring ceilings, beautiful fireplace, spacious kitchen and two primaries with ensuites are just a few reasons to fall in love. Kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry & counterspace, plus a huge island. Counter seating, breakfast nook and dining area gives entertaining options. First floor primary with ensuite is spacious, and a second upstairs. Living area is anchored by a gorgeous stone fireplace. Upstairs family room is spacious and full of possibilities.

21. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Back on the market, buyers' financing fell through. This hard to find Hunters Creek 5 BR home in Melissa ISD has it all, PLUS a huge corner lot! Soaring ceilings, beautiful fireplace, spacious kitchen and two primaries with ensuites are just a few reasons to fall in love. Kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry & counterspace, plus a huge island. Counter seating, breakfast nook and dining area gives entertaining options. First floor primary with ensuite is spacious, and a second upstairs. Living area is anchored by a gorgeous stone fireplace. Upstairs family room is spacious and full of possibilities.

22. 2022-02-10
    status Pending 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Back on the market, buyers' financing fell through. This hard to find Hunters Creek 5 BR home in Melissa ISD has it all, PLUS a huge corner lot! Soaring ceilings, beautiful fireplace, spacious kitchen and two primaries with ensuites are just a few reasons to fall in love. Kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry & counterspace, plus a huge island. Counter seating, breakfast nook and dining area gives entertaining options. First floor primary with ensuite is spacious, and a second upstairs. Living area is anchored by a gorgeous stone fireplace. Upstairs family room is spacious and full of possibilities.

23. 2022-01-14
    historical Active Option Contract 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Back on the market, buyers' financing fell through. This hard to find Hunters Creek 5 BR home in Melissa ISD has it all, PLUS a huge corner lot! Soaring ceilings, beautiful fireplace, spacious kitchen and two primaries with ensuites are just a few reasons to fall in love. Kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry & counterspace, plus a huge island. Counter seating, breakfast nook and dining area gives entertaining options. First floor primary with ensuite is spacious, and a second upstairs. Living area is anchored by a gorgeous stone fireplace. Upstairs family room is spacious and full of possibilities.

24. 2022-01-07
    status Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Back on the market, buyers' financing fell through. This hard to find Hunters Creek 5 BR home in Melissa ISD has it all, PLUS a huge corner lot! Soaring ceilings, beautiful fireplace, spacious kitchen and two primaries with ensuites are just a few reasons to fall in love. Kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry & counterspace, plus a huge island. Counter seating, breakfast nook and dining area gives entertaining options. First floor primary with ensuite is spacious, and a second upstairs. Living area is anchored by a gorgeous stone fireplace. Upstairs family room is spacious and full of possibilities.

25. 2021-11-29
    historical Active Contingent 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Back on the market, buyers' financing fell through. This hard to find Hunters Creek 5 BR home in Melissa ISD has it all, PLUS a huge corner lot! Soaring ceilings, beautiful fireplace, spacious kitchen and two primaries with ensuites are just a few reasons to fall in love. Kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry & counterspace, plus a huge island. Counter seating, breakfast nook and dining area gives entertaining options. First floor primary with ensuite is spacious, and a second upstairs. Living area is anchored by a gorgeous stone fireplace. Upstairs family room is spacious and full of possibilities.

26. 2021-11-17
    listed $425,000 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Back on the market, buyers' financing fell through. This hard to find Hunters Creek 5 BR home in Melissa ISD has it all, PLUS a huge corner lot! Soaring ceilings, beautiful fireplace, spacious kitchen and two primaries with ensuites are just a few reasons to fall in love. Kitchen offers fantastic cabinetry & counterspace, plus a huge island. Counter seating, breakfast nook and dining area gives entertaining options. First floor primary with ensuite is spacious, and a second upstairs. Living area is anchored by a gorgeous stone fireplace. Upstairs family room is spacious and full of possibilities.

27. 2019-08-12
    soldstatus
28. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2019-07-11
    historical Active Option Contract
30. 2019-06-28
    price $289,900
31. 2019-06-12
    listed $295,000 Active
32. 2016-07-25
    soldstatus
33. 2016-07-20
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2016-07-11
    status Pending
35. 2016-07-05
    historical Active Option Contract
36. 2016-06-23
    listed $244,990 Active
37. 2015-04-10
    soldstatus
38. 2015-04-08
    soldstatus Sold
39. 2015-02-24
    status Pending
40. 2015-02-13
    historical Active Option Contract
41. 2015-02-01
    listed $239,900 Active
42. 2008-12-05
    soldstatus
43. 2008-11-23
    historical
44. 2008-08-28
    listed $189,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,026 · $669/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,026 · $669/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$8,026
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,690
• − Management: −$2,690
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$18,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Melissa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830120
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $82,500
• Composite: 58.34/100
• National rank: #1012
• State rank: #24 of 826 in TX

Livability — Melissa

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Melissa, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 22,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,990
• Household income: $138,827
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 246.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.66%
• Current HPI: 235.2508
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $435,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $440,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $499,999 NTREIS
• 2022-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-02-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-01-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2021-11-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-11-17 Listed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2019-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-07-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-06-28 Price Changed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2019-06-12 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2016-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-07-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-07-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-06-23 Listed $244,990 NTREIS
• 2015-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-02-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-02-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-02-01 Listed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2008-12-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-11-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-08-28 Listed $189,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,026 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.