407 Carruthers St

Lexington, VA 24450

$157,000B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Built 1932 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $722/mo
• Annual: $8,660/yr
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.70%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $43,960

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#62 in VA, #1,813 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington City Public School District (town): math 82% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #4 of 131 in VA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harrington Waddell Elementary (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #71 of 1,108 statewide, top 8%, 324 students, 32% FRL); Lylburn Downing Middle (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #14 of 342 statewide, top 4%, 161 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Lexington city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.