407 Carruthers St · Lexington, VA 24450

$157,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1932 5,662 sqft lot Est $306k · 49% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Story house within walking distance to downtown Lexington, VMi and W & L. Being sold in 'AS IS' condition. Call today to schedule a viewing!!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Private back yard
• Minutes from i81

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• QUIET STREET
• MINUTES FROM I81

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Fee simple ownership; Lease not in effect and lease not considered; No rent control

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated year built
• Construction: Mixed construction materials; Brick/mortar foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; No tidal water on property; No buildout allowance indicated; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions; Above-grade other structures present

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Smoking is not allowed; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#62 in VA, #1,813 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington City Public School District (town): math 82% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #4 of 131 in VA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Lexington city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,580 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.70%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,000
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Massie St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (-3%)	5mo	$281,000	$190	72
224 N Randolph St	0.10mi	4/1.0	1,300 (-15%)	8mo	$170,000	$131	64
416 Morningside Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (+1%)	15mo	$540,000	$348	60
320 N Lewis St	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (-4%)	13mo	$385,000	$263	60
412 Morningside Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,442 (-6%)	12mo	$250,000	$173	58
415 Wills Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,471 (-4%)	16mo	$330,000	$224	54
11 Tucker St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (+11%)	12mo	$300,000	$177	51
110 E Mcdowell St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,377 (-10%)	1mo	$275,000	$200	50
15 Poyntz Place Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-8%)	20mo	$345,000	$245	46
13 Hunter Hill, Extension Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,577 (+3%)	19mo	$420,000	$266	44
214 Walker St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,443 (-6%)	23mo	$220,000	$152	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $20,496
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $76,920
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24450

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,174/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $811	-5% $766	+0% $722	+5% $677	+10% $633
Rent	-10% $551	-5% $636	+0% $722	+5% $807	+10% $893
Rate	-1.0pp $801	-0.5pp $762	base $722	+0.5pp $681	+1.0pp $640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Jean Francis DR Lexington, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	15d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $157,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $157,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $157,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $157,000
17. 2026-04-30
    price $158,000
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $159,000 Active
19. 2026-02-11
    historical
20. 2025-10-17
    price $160,000
21. 2025-10-06
    price $162,500
22. 2025-09-12
    price $165,000
23. 2025-08-14
    price $167,500
24. 2025-08-08
    price $169,000
25. 2025-07-18
    price $169,500
26. 2025-06-20
    price $170,000
27. 2025-06-06
    price $172,500
28. 2025-05-24
    price $175,000
29. 2025-05-16
    price $180,000
30. 2025-05-09
    price $190,000
31. 2025-04-24
    listed $195,000 Active
32. 2025-04-11
    soldstatus $130,000
33. 2025-04-10
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    2 Story house within walking distance to downtown Lexington, VMi and W & L. Being sold in 'AS IS' condition. Call today to schedule a viewing!!

34. 2025-02-18
    status Pending 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    2 Story house within walking distance to downtown Lexington, VMi and W & L. Being sold in 'AS IS' condition. Call today to schedule a viewing!!

35. 2025-01-03
    price $150,000 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    2 Story house within walking distance to downtown Lexington, VMi and W & L. Being sold in 'AS IS' condition. Call today to schedule a viewing!!

36. 2024-10-30
    listed $160,000 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    2 Story house within walking distance to downtown Lexington, VMi and W & L. Being sold in 'AS IS' condition. Call today to schedule a viewing!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,174 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 9.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$1,174
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $6,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,554
• After-tax cash flow: $7,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102220
• Math proficiency: 82% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 88% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,249
• Composite: 70.57/100
• National rank: #258
• State rank: #4 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1813

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, VA
• County: Rockbridge County · 17,714 people
• City population: 17,714
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 17,714
• Household income: $76,587
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,814 people
• By 2030: 9,156 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 9,636 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 10,345 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 12,696 · +44.0%
• By 2100: 14,268 · +61.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 62.7% · R 36.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.0 2016: D+30.6 2012: D+12.6 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.84%
• Current HPI: 283.7394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $158,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $162,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $167,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $169,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $172,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-24 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-10 Sold (MLS) $130,000 RHR
• 2025-02-18 Pending — RHR
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $150,000 RHR
• 2024-10-30 Listed $160,000 RHR

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,174 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.