4190 Hecktown Rd

Lower Nazareth, PA 18020

$410,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$548
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-432/mo
• Annual: $-5,183/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-432 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nazareth Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #92 of 539 in PA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lower Nazareth El Sch (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #444 of 1,518 statewide, top 32%, 620 students, 21% FRL); Nazareth Area Ms (math 28% / reading 63%, grade D+, #184 of 512 statewide, top 36%, 778 students, 24% FRL); Nazareth Area Hs (math 75%, 1,594 students, 22% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $244k; list at $410k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.