4190 Hecktown Rd · Lower Nazareth, PA 18020

$410,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1900 0.70 ac lot $208/sqft · 22% below area Est $528k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This early 1900 farmhouse sits on almost 3/4 of an acre in the Nazareth School District. Features include a large country kitchen, huge LR with cathedral ceiling and heated floor, wide plank pine floors in DR & office, 1st floor laundry, 4 bedrooms & full bath on 2nd floor. Covered front porch, beautiful covered patio, 2 car detached garage and a new septic in 2014.

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private septic system; Electric available; Sewer available; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Detached property; Shingle roof; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood siding; Other foundation; Other above- and below-grade structures; Year built listed by assessor
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Wood fencing; Above-ground personal pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range hood; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil-fired heating
• Interior features: No basement; 7 total rooms; Assessor-listed finished above-grade area
• Laundry & utility: Hot water: Electric

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-432 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nazareth Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #92 of 539 in PA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lower Nazareth El Sch (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #444 of 1,518 statewide, top 32%, 620 students, 21% FRL); Nazareth Area Ms (math 28% / reading 63%, grade D+, #184 of 512 statewide, top 36%, 778 students, 24% FRL); Nazareth Area Hs (math 75%, 1,594 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $244k; list at $410k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,896 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $527,620
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -22.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-93,984
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-117,420
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18020

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,529/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,416

Max offer price $333,707

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-200	-5% $-316	+0% $-432	+5% $-548	+10% $-664
Rent	-10% $-659	-5% $-545	+0% $-432	+5% $-319	+10% $-205
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-328	base $-432	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $410,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $410,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $410,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $410,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $410,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $410,000 Active 204-char remark
18. 2025-03-13
    soldstatus $244,000
19. 2019-11-12
    soldstatus $240,000
20. 2019-10-29
    soldstatus $240,000 Sold 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This early 1900 farmhouse sits on almost 3/4 of an acre in the Nazareth School District. Features include a large country kitchen, huge LR with cathedral ceiling and heated floor, wide plank pine floors in DR & office, 1st floor laundry, 4 bedrooms & full bath on 2nd floor. Covered front porch, beautiful covered patio, 2 car detached garage and a new septic in 2014.

21. 2019-09-23
    status Pending 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This early 1900 farmhouse sits on almost 3/4 of an acre in the Nazareth School District. Features include a large country kitchen, huge LR with cathedral ceiling and heated floor, wide plank pine floors in DR & office, 1st floor laundry, 4 bedrooms & full bath on 2nd floor. Covered front porch, beautiful covered patio, 2 car detached garage and a new septic in 2014.

22. 2019-09-09
    price $235,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This early 1900 farmhouse sits on almost 3/4 of an acre in the Nazareth School District. Features include a large country kitchen, huge LR with cathedral ceiling and heated floor, wide plank pine floors in DR & office, 1st floor laundry, 4 bedrooms & full bath on 2nd floor. Covered front porch, beautiful covered patio, 2 car detached garage and a new septic in 2014.

23. 2019-08-13
    status Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This early 1900 farmhouse sits on almost 3/4 of an acre in the Nazareth School District. Features include a large country kitchen, huge LR with cathedral ceiling and heated floor, wide plank pine floors in DR & office, 1st floor laundry, 4 bedrooms & full bath on 2nd floor. Covered front porch, beautiful covered patio, 2 car detached garage and a new septic in 2014.

24. 2019-08-07
    status Pending 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This early 1900 farmhouse sits on almost 3/4 of an acre in the Nazareth School District. Features include a large country kitchen, huge LR with cathedral ceiling and heated floor, wide plank pine floors in DR & office, 1st floor laundry, 4 bedrooms & full bath on 2nd floor. Covered front porch, beautiful covered patio, 2 car detached garage and a new septic in 2014.

25. 2019-07-31
    listed $249,500 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    This early 1900 farmhouse sits on almost 3/4 of an acre in the Nazareth School District. Features include a large country kitchen, huge LR with cathedral ceiling and heated floor, wide plank pine floors in DR & office, 1st floor laundry, 4 bedrooms & full bath on 2nd floor. Covered front porch, beautiful covered patio, 2 car detached garage and a new septic in 2014.

26. 2014-10-16
    soldstatus $215,000
27. 2014-10-15
    soldstatus $215,000

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Enjoy the charm and comfort of this 1900s farmhouse on 3/4 of an acre. This home features a large eat in country kitchen, beautiful 24x20 great room addition, spruce floors in the living room and dining room. First floor 1/2 bath and laundry, detached 2 car garage with an office. A charming house like this wont last long.

28. 2014-05-09
    listed $215,000

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Enjoy the charm and comfort of this 1900s farmhouse on 3/4 of an acre. This home features a large eat in country kitchen, beautiful 24x20 great room addition, spruce floors in the living room and dining room. First floor 1/2 bath and laundry, detached 2 car garage with an office. A charming house like this wont last long.

29. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,529 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,504 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: +$974/yr (+$81/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$4,529
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,754
• − Management: −$2,754
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$12,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,013
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nazareth Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216380
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $75,914
• Composite: 48.92/100
• National rank: #2077
• State rank: #92 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Nazareth

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 21,204
• Household income: $126,166
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 249.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Russian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.51%
• Current HPI: 206.2873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+645.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $410,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $244,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-29 Sold (MLS) $240,000 GLVRMLS
• 2019-09-23 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2019-09-09 Price Changed $235,000 GLVRMLS
• 2019-08-13 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2019-08-07 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2019-07-31 Listed $249,500 GLVRMLS
• 2014-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-15 Sold (MLS) $215,000 GLVRMLS
• 2014-05-09 Listed $215,000 GLVRMLS
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,529 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.