111 Dow St

Mendenhall, MS 39114

$139,999D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,813 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-142/mo
• Annual: $-1,709/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (18.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $115k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#220 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Simpson County School District (rural): math 18% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #90 of 130 in MS (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mendenhall Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #203 of 375 statewide, top 56%, 579 students, 100% FRL); Mendenhall Junior High School (math 14% / reading 24%, grade F, #119 of 179 statewide, top 66%, 243 students, 99% FRL); Mendenhall High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #150 of 197 statewide, top 76%, 519 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 76% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Simpson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Simpson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Mendenhall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.