104 Coxton Mill Ln

White Knoll, SC 29073

$270,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-56/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-56/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carolina Springs Elementary (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #359 of 597 statewide, top 60%, 850 students, 41% FRL); Carolina Springs Middle (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #119 of 229 statewide, top 54%, 914 students, 46% FRL); White Knoll High (math 47% / reading 85%, grade B, #81 of 196 statewide, top 42%, 2,204 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $174k; list at $270k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.