104 Coxton Mill Ln · White Knoll, SC 29073

$270,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2005 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home has a layout that actually makes sense for how people live! The main level features a bright, open feel with a spacious great room centered around a cozy gas fireplace—perfect for relaxing nights or hosting friends. The kitchen is a standout, complete with granite countertops, a center island, tiled backsplash, and plenty of cabinet space, all flowing easily into the main living areas. Upstairs, you’ll find all four bedrooms, including a roomy primary suite with vaulted ceilings, a walk-in closet, and a private bath featuring a double vanity, garden tub, and separate shower. The additional bedrooms give flexibility for guests, a home office, or what

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Tiled backsplash
• Great room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• TILED BACKSPLASH
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Homeowners association — community amenities include pool, playground, common area maintenance, street light maintenance and maintained green areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (main level) with 2 garage spaces; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two‑story single family home; Vinyl exterior
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened back porch; Full gutters; Sprinkler system; Storage shed; Privacy wood fence in rear

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Granite countertops; Tile floor and tiled backsplash; Painted cabinets; Convection, free‑standing, smooth‑surface, self‑cleaning range; Dishwasher; Microwave above stove; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor with double vanity, garden tub, separate shower, vaulted ceilings and ceiling fan; Three additional bedrooms on second floor — each with ceiling fan and private closet; Bedroom 2 includes walk-in closet and tub/shower
• Flooring: Tile floors in living and formal dining areas; Carpeted bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Additional full baths on second floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Zoned HVAC with gas heating on both levels
• Interior features: Attic storage with pull-down access; Ceiling fans throughout; Smoke detector; Gas log (natural) fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Second‑floor laundry area; Closet laundry space; Tankless gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-56/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carolina Springs Elementary (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #359 of 597 statewide, top 60%, 850 students, 41% FRL); Carolina Springs Middle (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #119 of 229 statewide, top 54%, 914 students, 46% FRL); White Knoll High (math 47% / reading 85%, grade B, #81 of 196 statewide, top 42%, 2,204 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $174k; list at $270k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,839 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-43,680
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,887
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29073

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,039/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $269,172

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $72	+0% $-5	+5% $-81	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-85	+0% $-5	+5% $76	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $64	base $-5	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 Brevard Pkwy Lexington, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,275	$1.16	4d	1	0.26mi
432 Cape Jasmine Way Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,049	$1.28	5d	1	0.37mi
473 Walking Ln Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1835	$2,100	$1.14	25d	1	0.41mi
307 Savannah Hills Dr Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1612	$1,985	$1.23	25d	1	0.64mi
2237 Trakand Dr Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1962	$1,975	$1.01	4d	1	0.69mi
237 Tea Olive Ave Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	2448	$2,099	$0.86	23d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active - Contingent
3. 2026-04-28
   listed $270,000 Active
4. 2018-05-30
   soldstatus $173,500
5. 2015-07-20
   soldstatus $154,900
6. 2008-08-12
   soldstatus $162,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,039 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$500/yr (+$42/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,039
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$4,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,157
• After-tax cash flow: $1,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — White Knoll

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Knoll, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 51,471
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,156
• Household income: $77,229
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.20%
• Current HPI: 249.8957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $270,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2018-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $173,500 Public Records
• 2015-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $154,900 Public Records
• 2008-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,039 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.