5034 E Shelby Rd

Medina, NY 14103

$189,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,988 sqft · Built 1878 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-163/mo
• Annual: $-1,954/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $811 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-502 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#344 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #548 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clifford Wise Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,821 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 395 students, 55% FRL); Medina Junior-Senior High School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 614 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $190k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.