5034 E Shelby Rd · Medina, NY 14103

$189,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1878 0.52 ac lot $96/sqft · 10% below area Est $212k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

Key facts

• First-floor bedroom
• Formal dining room
• Kitchen pantry

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• KITCHEN PANTRY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; 1 garage space (listed)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Water connected (public); Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story property; Existing construction; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Gravel driveway; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Heating present
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#344 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #548 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clifford Wise Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,821 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 395 students, 55% FRL); Medina Junior-Senior High School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 614 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $811 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-502 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $190k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $161,132 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,762
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -10.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,166
• Equity at exit: $52,647

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,449
• Equity at exit: $61,326

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14103

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,434/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,828

Max offer price $161,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-109	+0% $-163	+5% $-217	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-227	+0% $-163	+5% $-99	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-115	base $-163	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   status $189,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $194,900 Active 1980-char remark
16. 2019-03-26
    soldstatus $50,000
17. 2019-03-21
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed Sale or Rented 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

18. 2018-12-10
    status Pending Sale 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

19. 2018-10-27
    price $50,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

20. 2018-10-02
    price $59,900 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

21. 2018-09-25
    status Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

22. 2018-09-20
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

23. 2018-07-28
    price $63,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

24. 2018-07-10
    price $66,900 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

25. 2018-05-17
    price $69,900 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

26. 2018-04-30
    price $74,900 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

27. 2018-04-30
    listed $44,900 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Large country home with 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Home features large open kitchen, first floor laundry, formal dining, first floor bedroom and back deck. All appliances will stay. Home sits on half acre lot and has a new septic system that was installed in 2015. With fair offer sellers will make kitchen cabinet doors if the purchaser would like. Sample door is installed now. Call today!!

28. 2015-08-31
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed Sale or Rented

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Four bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper with almost 2,000 square feet. Features large 1st floor laundry, two story foyer, natural woodwork, big lot, detached garage. Owner will hold the mortgage with a good down payment and good credit. Listed below assessment.

29. 2015-08-31
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed Sale or Rented

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Four bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper with almost 2,000 square feet. Features large 1st floor laundry, two story foyer, natural woodwork, big lot, detached garage. Owner will hold the mortgage with a good down payment and good credit. Listed below assessment.

30. 2015-08-31
    soldstatus $25,000

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Four bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper with almost 2,000 square feet. Features large 1st floor laundry, two story foyer, natural woodwork, big lot, detached garage. Owner will hold the mortgage with a good down payment and good credit. Listed below assessment.

31. 2015-07-13
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Four bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper with almost 2,000 square feet. Features large 1st floor laundry, two story foyer, natural woodwork, big lot, detached garage. Owner will hold the mortgage with a good down payment and good credit. Listed below assessment.

32. 2015-07-13
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Four bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper with almost 2,000 square feet. Features large 1st floor laundry, two story foyer, natural woodwork, big lot, detached garage. Owner will hold the mortgage with a good down payment and good credit. Listed below assessment.

33. 2015-06-23
    listed $28,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Four bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper with almost 2,000 square feet. Features large 1st floor laundry, two story foyer, natural woodwork, big lot, detached garage. Owner will hold the mortgage with a good down payment and good credit. Listed below assessment.

34. 2015-06-23
    listed $28,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Four bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper with almost 2,000 square feet. Features large 1st floor laundry, two story foyer, natural woodwork, big lot, detached garage. Owner will hold the mortgage with a good down payment and good credit. Listed below assessment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,434 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,434 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,434
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$5,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $-708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618960
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,046
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5901
• State rank: #548 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medina

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #5814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,836
• Population (ZIP): 10,836

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.26%
• Current HPI: 307.0342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+566.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-06-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $194,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-21 Sold (MLS) $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-12-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-10-27 Price Changed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-10-02 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-09-25 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2018-09-20 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2018-07-28 Price Changed $63,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-07-10 Price Changed $66,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-05-17 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-04-30 Price Changed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-04-30 Listed $44,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-31 Sold (MLS) $25,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-08-31 Sold (MLS) $25,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-07-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-07-13 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2015-06-23 Listed $28,500 WNYREIS
• 2015-06-23 Listed $28,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,434 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.