627 Baker Dr

Lafayette, TN 37083

$264,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,760/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-157/mo
• Annual: $-1,885/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#80 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Macon County (rural): math 34% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #53 of 139 in TN (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairlane Elementary (532 students, 0% FRL); Macon County Junior High School (math 37% / reading 26%, grade F, #89 of 333 statewide, top 28%, 771 students, 0% FRL); Macon County High School (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #112 of 332 statewide, top 35%, 967 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 181 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $265k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.