627 Baker Dr · Lafayette, TN 37083

$264,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1974 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller to pay buyer's closing costs with accepted offer Move in Ready! Beautifully decorated home in an established neighborhood. All brick home on a corner lot inside city limits. Larges, level, gorgeous lot with beautiful mature trees. Big eat in kitchen. Extra living area could be used as a 4th bedroom. Big utility room with storage. The back yard has a storage building and plenty of room for the kids to play. Convenient to all amenities Lafayette has to offer. Don't let this one get away! Click on the link below to view video!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking reported; No total parking spaces reported
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Existing year built; Living area about 1,375 square feet
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Storage structure on site; Lot approximately 0.46 acre (100 x 200 irregular)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Oven; Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawl space basement
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Extra closets; Recently redecorated
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#80 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Macon County (rural): math 34% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #53 of 139 in TN (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairlane Elementary (532 students, 0% FRL); Macon County Junior High School (math 37% / reading 26%, grade F, #89 of 333 statewide, top 28%, 771 students, 0% FRL); Macon County High School (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #112 of 332 statewide, top 35%, 967 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 181 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Macon County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $265k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,018 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $134,120
• Equity at exit: $238,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $402,535
• Equity at exit: $514,642

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37083

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $237,151

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-82	+0% $-157	+5% $-232	+10% $-623
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-227	+0% $-157	+5% $-88	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-90	base $-157	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Cherokee Dr Unit 16 Lafayette, TN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	45d	1	1.22mi
203 Cherokee Dr Lafayette, TN	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	45d	1	1.24mi
100 Apache Pt Lafayette, TN	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	45d	1	1.27mi
155 Lafayette Rd Lafayette, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,036	$1.30	4d	11	1.35mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $264,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   remarks 538-char remark
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $264,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $264,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $264,900 Active 1 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    price $264,900
20. 2026-05-30
    historical $259,900
21. 2025-01-04
    historical
22. 2024-10-19
    listed $239,900 Active
23. 2024-10-14
    historical
24. 2024-10-02
    price $244,500
25. 2024-09-16
    price $244,900
26. 2024-08-11
    status Active
27. 2024-08-07
    price $249,900
28. 2024-07-31
    listed $264,900 Active
29. 2024-07-29
    historical
30. 2018-04-27
    soldstatus $115,400 Closed
31. 2018-03-05
    historical Contingent - Financing
32. 2018-02-27
    price $109,500
33. 2018-01-23
    price $112,500
34. 2017-11-19
    listed $115,000 Active
35. 2006-12-29
    soldstatus $72,000
36. 2006-09-14
    soldstatus $53,300
37. 1995-06-23
    soldstatus $41,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,881 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,304/yr (+$109/mo · 226.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$6,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $-276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Macon County
• NCES district ID: 4702550
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,280
• Composite: 25.97/100
• National rank: #7329
• State rank: #53 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lafayette

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #9247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lafayette, TN
• Population (ZIP): 16,887

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,618 people
• By 2030: 25,337 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 26,739 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 27,822 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 30,614 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 31,851 · +29.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.3) · D 12.4% · R 86.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -54.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -74.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.3 2020: R+71.6 2016: R+69.3 2012: R+53.7 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.33%
• Current HPI: 388.8726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+536.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $264,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $259,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-04 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-19 Listed $239,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-14 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $244,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $244,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-11 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $249,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Listed $264,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-29 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-27 Sold (MLS) $115,400 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-05 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-27 Price Changed $109,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-23 Price Changed $112,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-19 Listed $115,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $53,300 Public Records
• 1995-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $41,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · -22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.