14979 Fargo Dr

Chandler, TX 75758

$389,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$681
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $40/mo
• Annual: $475/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($475/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $389k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.