14979 Fargo Dr · Chandler, TX 75758

$389,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2001 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large, covered patio, and a 2-car garage! This traditional, colonial style home sits picturesquely on 3-4 of an acres in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Brownsboro isd
• Split floor plan

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• BROWNSBORO ISD
• THREE PARKS
• ACCESS TO NECHES RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($475/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $389k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $349,500 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-60,438
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-49,082
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$519 /mo · $6,233/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,445

Max offer price $389,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $150	+0% $40	+5% $-70	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-98	+0% $40	+5% $178	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $139	base $40	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15233 Wagon Wheel Cir Chandler, TX	4.0	3.5	3283	$3,495	$1.06	45d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2025-03-20
   soldstatus Closed 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large, covered patio, and a 2-car garage! This traditional, colonial style home sits picturesquely on 3-4 of an acres in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

2. 2025-02-26
   soldstatus
3. 2025-02-20
   soldstatus Closed 491-char remark

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large covered patio, and a 2 car garage! This traditional, colonial style home, sits picturesquely on 3/4 of an acre in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

4. 2025-02-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large, covered patio, and a 2-car garage! This traditional, colonial style home sits picturesquely on 3-4 of an acres in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

5. 2025-02-04
   status Pending 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large, covered patio, and a 2-car garage! This traditional, colonial style home sits picturesquely on 3-4 of an acres in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

6. 2025-01-24
   historical Active Option Contract 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large, covered patio, and a 2-car garage! This traditional, colonial style home sits picturesquely on 3-4 of an acres in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

7. 2025-01-23
   historical 491-char remark

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large covered patio, and a 2 car garage! This traditional, colonial style home, sits picturesquely on 3/4 of an acre in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

8. 2025-01-15
   listed $389,000 Active 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large, covered patio, and a 2-car garage! This traditional, colonial style home sits picturesquely on 3-4 of an acres in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

9. 2025-01-15
   listed $389,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large, covered patio, and a 2-car garage! This traditional, colonial style home sits picturesquely on 3-4 of an acres in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

10. 2025-01-08
    listed $389,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Welcome home to this open concept, split floor plan that offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a bonus room, a large covered patio, and a 2 car garage! This traditional, colonial style home, sits picturesquely on 3/4 of an acre in Fargo Estates. Located in Brownsboro ISD, this property has convenient access to Tyler, Athens, Interstate 20, and Tyler Pounds Field. Chandler, Texas, is a quaint East Texas town that offers a library, three parks, and access to the Neches River and Lake Palestine.

11. 2024-09-28
    listed $410,000 Active
12. 2024-04-23
    price $414,900
13. 2024-03-04
    listed $420,000 Active
14. 2024-03-04
    listed $420,000 Active
15. 2015-08-11
    soldstatus
16. 2015-08-07
    soldstatus
17. 2015-06-29
    listed $249,900
18. 2007-07-05
    soldstatus
19. 2001-09-05
    soldstatus $125,000
20. 2001-04-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,233 · $519/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,119 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: +$886/yr (+$74/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$6,233
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,355
• − Management: −$3,355
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$6,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $1,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #7634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+211.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-20 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2025-02-04 Pending — LAAR
• 2025-02-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-01-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-01-23 Delisted — GTAR
• 2025-01-15 Listed $389,000 LAAR
• 2025-01-15 Listed $389,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $389,000 GTAR
• 2024-09-28 Listed $410,000 GTAR
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $414,900 GTAR
• 2024-03-04 Listed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $420,000 GTAR
• 2015-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-07 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2015-06-29 Listed $249,900 GTAR
• 2007-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,233 · -11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.