2044 Corral Canyon Rd

Malibu, CA 90265

$2,295,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,541 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,035
• Tax + insurance: −$1,342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,800
• Net cashflow: $918/mo
• Annual: $11,020/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $642,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.81M (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.81M (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#979 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, schools B; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 627 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 22850% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $2.29M implies a 7550% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 0.7% in Malibu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $18,096/mo this rent would consume 110% of the median local household income ($197k/yr) (locally 420% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.