4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,830 sqft ·
Built 1890
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 14 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$21,312/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$7,337
Tax + insurance
−$1,203
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$4,476
Net cashflow
$8,297/mo
Annual
$99,564/yr
Cap rate
13.41%
Cash-on-cash
25.42%
DSCR
2.13
1% rule
1.52%
Cash to close
$391,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($100k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.40M).
Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $140k; list at $1.40M implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5XHFK3C8MMH33Y
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29