3 Mill Circle Dr

Dardanelle, AR 72834

$137,700D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$722
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $37/mo
• Annual: $438/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $38,556

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($438/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (20.5% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $110k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $952 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#56 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Dardanelle School District (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #52 of 238 in AR (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dardanelle Primary School (math 47% / reading 27%, grade F, #229 of 454 statewide, top 54%, 614 students, 72% FRL); Dardanelle Middle School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade D, #69 of 201 statewide, top 34%, 524 students, 66% FRL); Dardanelle High School (math 27% / reading 50%, grade F, #60 of 292 statewide, top 20%, 624 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Yell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yell County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Dardanelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.