123 Lakeview Cir

Pilot Point, TX 76258

$407,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,139 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,139
• Tax + insurance: −$707
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-904/mo
• Annual: $-10,850/yr
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.50%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $114,212

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $408k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-904 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (39.8% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pilot Point El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 516 students, 56% FRL); Pilot Point Selz Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 59% FRL); Pilot Point H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 698 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.