123 Lakeview Cir · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$407,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,139 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.28 ac lot 2-car garage $191/sqft · 7% below area Est $441k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer 4 bedroom, 3 full bath home in Custom Lakeview Estates on a large flat lot with no HOA and rare backyard access potential. Clean, well maintained, and thoughtfully upgraded, this home is ideal for someone wanting space for a boat, RV, workshop, or barn, with room to add a driveway to the backyard and a future structure up to approximately 30 by 35 ft and 1069 sf, subject to city requirements. This is a hard to find lot feature in Pilot Point, especially with a newer home.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Granite counters

Tags

• CUSTOM LAKEVIEW ESTATES
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• COOKING VENT TO EXTERIOR
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $408k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-904 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (39.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pilot Point El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 516 students, 56% FRL); Pilot Point Selz Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 59% FRL); Pilot Point H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 698 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,755 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.50%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,162
• List price: $407,900
• Delta: -7.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
191 Lakeview Cir	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,139 (0%)	13mo	$350,000	$164	87
184 Lakeview Cir	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,084 (-3%)	11mo	$399,900	$192	79
326 W Liberty St	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,131 (-0%)	4mo	$529,500	$248	76
200 Lakeview Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+3%)	21mo	$450,000	$204	66
606 S Hill St	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,354 (+10%)	13mo	$359,000	$153	61
101 Maverick Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,101 (-2%)	21mo	$419,900	$200	57
103 Maverick Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-12%)	13mo	$379,900	$202	46
412 N Dallas St	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,826 (-15%)	5mo	$320,000	$175	45
105 Maverick Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-12%)	18mo	$379,900	$202	43
624 W Gould St	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,951 (-9%)	24mo	$369,500	$189	30
322 E Main St	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,368 (+11%)	22mo	$375,000	$158	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-123,631
• Equity at exit: $60,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-181,590
• Equity at exit: $35,268

Cash invested: $114,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $364,999 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 69% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 698
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,458 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,139
• Tax from tax record: −$537 /mo · $6,439/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,602

Max offer price $248,175

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-673	-5% $-789	+0% $-904	+5% $-1,020	+10% $-1,135
Rent	-10% $-1,098	-5% $-1,001	+0% $-904	+5% $-807	+10% $-710
Rate	-1.0pp $-699	-0.5pp $-800	base $-904	+0.5pp $-1,010	+1.0pp $-1,117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,975
• Closing costs: $12,237
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
176 Lakeview Cir Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	2212	$3,000	$1.36	74d	1	0.07mi
9213 Wilson Rd Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$3,950	$2.56	42d	1	0.34mi
9213 Wilson Rd Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$5,750	$3.73	139d	1	0.34mi
290 N Laramie Cir Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	59d	1	0.42mi
313 S Prairie St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,450	$1.23	139d	1	0.63mi
408 E Liberty St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$3,500	$2.38	51d	1	0.76mi
508 S Harrison St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	2001	$2,199	$1.10	108d	1	0.77mi
810 Dover St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1877	$1,850	$0.99	0d	1	0.85mi
721 N Jefferson St Unit 1167 Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	41d	1	0.86mi
721 N Jefferson St Unit 1153 Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	108d	1	0.86mi
721 N Jefferson St Unit 1188 Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,875	$1.26	100d	1	0.86mi
721 N Jefferson St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,800	$1.21	39d	1	0.86mi
721 N Jefferson St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,800	$1.21	105d	1	0.86mi
701 E Jacob St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,300	$1.59	7d	1	1.12mi
427 Alpha Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1992	$2,200	$1.10	47d	1	1.22mi
579 Ruthye Ln Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1934	$2,199	$1.14	94d	1	1.24mi
598 Minnie Ln Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,795	$1.15	102d	1	1.31mi
615 Joseph Rd Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,099	$1.09	84d	1	1.34mi
766 Carson Ln Pilot Point, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1736	$2,320	$1.34	0d	1	1.39mi
449 Mb S Way Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,155	$1.12	89d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment includedNo horses permitted
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front)Two covered parking spacesDriveway and concrete parking; lighted
• Security: Prewired for security
• Utilities: City water and city sewerElectricity connectedCable and phone availableUnderground utilitiesCommunity mailboxAll-weather roads, curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne-storyPreowned home built in 2021Smart home features availablePrewired security
• Construction: Brick, fiber cement and rock/stone exteriorComposition shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porchCovered patioGuttersWood fencing with gate around backyardLarge backyard with grass and sprinkler systemLandscaped interior lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposalElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks, linen closet and custom closet systemThree additional bedrooms on main level, each with custom closet systems
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLaminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and coolingHeat pump
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen island and pantryGranite countertopsCable TV and high-speed internet availableOne living area and one dining areaKitchen vented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area with electric dryer hookupUtility room with drip/dry area

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-07-14
   days on market $407,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $407,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-07-13
   days on market $407,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-07-11
   days on market $407,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-07-10
   days on market $407,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-07-09
   days on market $407,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-07-07
   days on market $407,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $407,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-07-06
   days on market $407,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-07-05
    days on market $407,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-07-03
    days on market $407,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-07-02
    days on market $407,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-07-01
    days on market $407,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-30
    days on market $407,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-29
    days on market $407,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-06-28
    days on market $407,900 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-06-27
    days on market $407,900 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-06-26
    days on market $407,900 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-06-24
    days on market $407,900 Active 23 DOM
20. 2026-06-22
    days on market $407,900 Active 21 DOM
21. 2026-06-21
    days on market $407,900 Active 20 DOM
22. 2026-06-18
    days on market $407,900 Active 17 DOM
23. 2026-06-17
    price $407,900 Active 16 DOM
24. 2026-06-17
    days on market $424,750 Active 16 DOM
25. 2026-06-15
    days on market $424,750 Active 14 DOM
26. 2026-06-13
    days on market $424,750 Active 12 DOM
27. 2026-06-13
    days on market $424,750 Active 11 DOM
28. 2026-06-09
    days on market $424,750 Active 8 DOM
29. 2026-06-08
    days on market $424,750 Active 7 DOM
30. 2026-06-07
    days on market $424,750 Active 6 DOM
31. 2026-06-04
    days on market $424,750 Active 3 DOM
32. 2026-06-03
    days on market $424,750 Active 2 DOM
33. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
34. 2026-06-02
    listed $424,750 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,439 · $537/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,465 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,025/yr (+$85/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,849
• − Property taxes: −$6,439
• − Insurance: −$2,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,359
• − Management: −$2,359
• − Depreciation: −$11,866
• Taxable loss: −$18,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,421
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and adds value for both buyers and renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pilot Point El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Pilot Point Selz Middle F TX #660/1,662 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Pilot Point H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pilot Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834920
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,332
• Composite: 36.85/100
• National rank: #4555
• State rank: #303 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• County: Denton · 1,053,010 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,042
• Household income: $93,661
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment includedNo horses permitted
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front)Two covered parking spacesDriveway and concrete parking; lighted
• Security: Prewired for security
• Utilities: City water and city sewerElectricity connectedCable and phone availableUnderground utilitiesCommunity mailboxAll-weather roads, curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne-storyPreowned home built in 2021Smart home features availablePrewired security
• Construction: Brick, fiber cement and rock/stone exteriorComposition shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porchCovered patioGuttersWood fencing with gate around backyardLarge backyard with grass and sprinkler systemLandscaped interior lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposalElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks, linen closet and custom closet systemThree additional bedrooms on main level, each with custom closet systems
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLaminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and coolingHeat pump
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen island and pantryGranite countertopsCable TV and high-speed internet availableOne living area and one dining areaKitchen vented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area with electric dryer hookupUtility room with drip/dry area

Price history

+15588.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $407,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $424,750 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed for Rent $2,600 NTREIS
• 2024-06-28 Rental Removed $2,600 NTREIS
• 2024-05-13 Listed for Rent $2,600 NTREIS

Property tax history

+34.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,439 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.