179 Persimmon Tree Ln

Ernstville, MD 25427

$233,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-188/mo
• Annual: $-2,261/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $65,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (34.2% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#480 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #43 of 55 in WV (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $192k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.