179 Persimmon Tree Ln · Ernstville, MD 25427

$233,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1989 2.70 ac lot $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 BR 1 BA cabin home on 2.7 acres

Key facts

• Private wooded acres
• Functional layout
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED ACRES
• LARGE SCREENED-IN PORCH
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL WOOD CABINETRY
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $140 (includes road maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric hot water; Electric heating and cooling; Fiber optic internet available
• Home design: Detached home; Single-story entry with main-level living
• Construction: Log construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Gutter system; Outbuilding(s); Shed; Porches and patios (screened)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Built-in range / electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Wall unit heating; Ductless / mini-split cooling; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Combination kitchen and dining area; Tub with shower; Water treatment system; Window treatments; Screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#480 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #43 of 55 in WV (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $192k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,236 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $114,792
• Equity at exit: $209,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $347,267
• Equity at exit: $452,668

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25427

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,532 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $816/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,771

Max offer price $199,718

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-122	+0% $-188	+5% $-254	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-249	+0% $-188	+5% $-128	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-71	-0.5pp $-129	base $-188	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-22
   price $233,000
2. 2026-03-19
   status Active
3. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-14
   listed $253,000 Active
5. 2023-12-13
   soldstatus $192,000 33-char remark

   Show marketing remark (33 chars)

   2 BR 1 BA cabin home on 2.7 acres

6. 2023-12-13
   listed $192,000 33-char remark

   Show marketing remark (33 chars)

   2 BR 1 BA cabin home on 2.7 acres

7. 2023-12-11
   soldstatus $192,000
8. 2020-07-01
   soldstatus $125,000
9. 2020-06-30
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Your new home will be your secluded escape. This quaint cabin is nestled among the trees of a private 2.7 acres. You are sure to relax and enjoy the wildlife from the large screened in porch or the covered patio. The newly renovated interior offers new flooring, appliances, cabinets, hot water heater, full bathroom, and heat/air system. Two bedrooms overlook the wooded property and an open family room with vaulted ceilings finish out the amenities of this very attractive home. Seller is Agent

10. 2020-06-16
    status Pending 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Your new home will be your secluded escape. This quaint cabin is nestled among the trees of a private 2.7 acres. You are sure to relax and enjoy the wildlife from the large screened in porch or the covered patio. The newly renovated interior offers new flooring, appliances, cabinets, hot water heater, full bathroom, and heat/air system. Two bedrooms overlook the wooded property and an open family room with vaulted ceilings finish out the amenities of this very attractive home. Seller is Agent

11. 2020-05-07
    historical Active Under Contract 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Your new home will be your secluded escape. This quaint cabin is nestled among the trees of a private 2.7 acres. You are sure to relax and enjoy the wildlife from the large screened in porch or the covered patio. The newly renovated interior offers new flooring, appliances, cabinets, hot water heater, full bathroom, and heat/air system. Two bedrooms overlook the wooded property and an open family room with vaulted ceilings finish out the amenities of this very attractive home. Seller is Agent

12. 2020-04-29
    listed $129,900 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Your new home will be your secluded escape. This quaint cabin is nestled among the trees of a private 2.7 acres. You are sure to relax and enjoy the wildlife from the large screened in porch or the covered patio. The newly renovated interior offers new flooring, appliances, cabinets, hot water heater, full bathroom, and heat/air system. Two bedrooms overlook the wooded property and an open family room with vaulted ceilings finish out the amenities of this very attractive home. Seller is Agent

13. 2020-04-02
    soldstatus $48,000
14. 2014-04-30
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold
15. 2014-04-30
    soldstatus $39,000
16. 2014-04-22
    status Contract
17. 2014-04-18
    historical
18. 2014-03-19
    price $49,900
19. 2014-02-25
    listed $54,900 Active
20. 2014-02-25
    listed $49,900
21. 1999-12-22
    soldstatus $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,678 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 105.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$816
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$6,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400990
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,255
• Composite: 22.75/100
• National rank: #8033
• State rank: #43 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ernstville

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #26861

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Berkeley County
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,595
• Household income: $87,184
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 120.0

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,350 people
• By 2030: 17,005 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 15,939 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 14,775 · -14.8%
• By 2075: 12,773 · -26.4%
• By 2100: 10,795 · -37.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.6) · D 21.4% · R 77.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -23.5pp · 2024: -55.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.6 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+23.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.42%
• Current HPI: 270.4542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+240.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $233,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $253,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-13 Listed $192,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-13 Sold (MLS) $192,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $192,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-30 Sold (MLS) $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-07 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-29 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-30 Sold (MLS) $39,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-30 Sold (MLS) $39,000 MRIS
• 2014-04-22 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-04-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-03-19 Price Changed $49,900 MRIS
• 2014-02-25 Listed $54,900 MRIS
• 2014-02-25 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $816 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.