L12 Chilkat Lk

Covenant Life, AK 99827

$159,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,556/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $124/mo
• Annual: $1,489/yr
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.7% below list).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#292 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Haines Borough School District (rural): math 40% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #5 of 53 in AK (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Haines Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Haines County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Photos show a dilapidated roof
• Major: exterior siding — Photos show peeling paint and damaged siding
• Major: flooring — Photos show worn and damaged flooring
• Major: interior walls — Photos show peeling paint and damaged walls
• Major: windows — Photos show broken windows
• Major: HVAC system — Photos show an old and likely non-functional HVAC system