L12 Chilkat Lk · Covenant Life, AK 99827

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Built 1990 Poor condition 4.90 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Chilkat Lake remote house located on Birch Island with 4.9 acres. This is a remote lakefront property accessible only by jet boat or floatplane and by snowmachine in the winter. The property offers stunning water and mountain views and wooded acreage to hike. The cabin requires repairs and TLC and is being sold as-is. The house is entirely off-grid, utilizing an existing generator system in need of repairs. This property is ideal for self-sufficient buyers seeking a fishing base and the chance to enjoy all the outdoor adventures that Alaska has to offer.

Key facts

• Off-grid
• Generator system
• Wooded acreage

Tags

• REMOTE LAKEFRONT PROPERTY
• WATER AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WOODED ACREAGE
• OFF-GRID
• GENERATOR SYSTEM
• FISHING BASE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#292 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Haines Borough School District (rural): math 40% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #5 of 53 in AK (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Haines Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Haines County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $27,191
• Equity at exit: $71,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $85,776
• Equity at exit: $110,803

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99827

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $179	+0% $124	+5% $69	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $63	+0% $124	+5% $186	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $205	-0.5pp $165	base $124	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 695-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    price $159,900 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 196 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 195 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 194 DOM
19. 2025-11-14
    listed $185,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Chilkat Lake remote house located on Birch Island with 4.9 acres. This is a remote lakefront property accessible only by jet boat or floatplane and by snowmachine in the winter. The property offers stunning water and mountain views and wooded acreage to hike. The cabin requires repairs and TLC and is being sold as-is. The house is entirely off-grid, utilizing an existing generator system in need of repairs. This property is ideal for self-sufficient buyers seeking a fishing base and the chance to enjoy all the outdoor adventures that Alaska has to offer.

20. 2023-03-08
    listed $285,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This remote cabin requires extensive repairs and renovations to become move-in ready. The home's poor condition and lack of amenities make it a challenging investment.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Photos show a dilapidated roof
• Major exterior siding — Photos show peeling paint and damaged siding
• Major flooring — Photos show worn and damaged flooring
• Major interior walls — Photos show peeling paint and damaged walls
• Major windows — Photos show broken windows
• Major HVAC system — Photos show an old and likely non-functional HVAC system
• Major landscaping — Photos show overgrown and unkempt landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality
• Both New exterior siding — New siding would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both Replace windows — Replacing broken windows would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both Install new HVAC system — A new HVAC system would improve the home's functionality and increase its value
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Photos show a dilapidated roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Photos show peeling paint and damaged siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Photos show worn and damaged flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Photos show peeling paint and damaged walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Photos show broken windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Photos show an old and likely non-functional HVAC system	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Photos show overgrown and unkempt landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both New exterior siding — New siding would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Replacing broken windows would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both Install new HVAC system — A new HVAC system would improve the home's functionality and increase its value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haines Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,101
• Composite: 47.02/100
• National rank: #5131
• State rank: #5 of 53 in AK

Livability — Covenant Life

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #26724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covenant Life, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,166

Population outlook (Haines County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,529 people
• By 2030: 2,540 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 2,587 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 2,754 · +8.9%
• By 2075: 3,480 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 4,279 · +69.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Haines

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-35.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Listed $185,000 AKMLS
• 2023-03-08 Listed $285,000 AKMLS