2955 Graffenburg Rd

Utica, NY 13413

$319,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,931 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$567
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-301/mo
• Annual: $-3,611/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $89,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (23.1% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $246k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Elementary School (math 67% / reading 82%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 453 students, 16% FRL); Perry Junior High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 584 students, 21% FRL); New Hartford Senior High School (math 98% / reading 87%, grade A+, #158 of 1,100 statewide, top 15%, 645 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $221k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 7.8% in Utica — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.