2955 Graffenburg Rd · Utica, NY 13413

$319,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,931 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1969 0.33 ac lot $166/sqft · 22% below area Est $413k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expansive 4 bed 2.5 bath colonial in New Hartford schools! This home features a brand new furnace, brand new appliances, new flooring, and much much more! The first floor has a great flow and layout with a massive living room, formal dining room, eat-in kitchen, half bath, and a freshly remodeled family room! Upstairs you'll find an expansive master suite complete with a full bath. 3 additional large bedrooms and a freshly remodeled bathroom that easily has enough space to bring the laundry to the second floor. Stepping outside to find the circular driveway and 2 stall attached garage before moving to the back yard to enjoy the deck. The basement features an exterior walkout that could easily be converted to living space. All of this for a very affordable price with Frankfort and Herkimer County taxes!

Key facts

• Cozy den
• Updated bathrooms
• Crackling fireplace

Tags

• COZY DEN
• CRACKLING FIREPLACE
• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GENEROUSLY SIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Circular driveway; Garage with electricity
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing construction; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Deck (open); Porch; Fully fenced yard; Blacktop driveway; Irregular lot (139 x 165)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second level); Bedroom 2 (Second level); Bedroom 3 (Second level); Bedroom 4 (Second level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Full basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 7.8% in Utica — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Elementary School (math 67% / reading 82%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 453 students, 16% FRL); Perry Junior High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 584 students, 21% FRL); New Hartford Senior High School (math 98% / reading 87%, grade A+, #158 of 1,100 statewide, top 15%, 645 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $221k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $246,044 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,520
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -12.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2939 Graffenburg Rd	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,904 (-1%)	2mo	$415,000	$218	89
126 Hays Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+14%)	14mo	$275,000	$125	55
1 Slaytonbush Ln	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,860 (-4%)	11mo	$344,000	$185	52
1904 Sherman Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+5%)	10mo	$400,000	$198	52
1906 Sherman Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,136 (+11%)	21mo	$362,500	$170	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,943
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-86,215
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,205/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,841

Max offer price $266,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-210	+0% $-301	+5% $-391	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-495	-5% $-398	+0% $-301	+5% $-204	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-220	base $-301	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on marketlisting id $319,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $320,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on marketlisting id $320,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $362,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $362,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $362,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $362,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $362,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $362,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $362,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $362,900 Active 45 DOM
19. 2026-04-28
    price $362,900 843-char remark
20. 2026-04-15
    listed $379,900 Active 843-char remark
21. 2022-09-08
    soldstatus $221,450
22. 2022-09-06
    soldstatus $221,450 Closed Sale or Rented 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Expansive 4 bed 2.5 bath colonial in New Hartford schools! This home features a brand new furnace, brand new appliances, new flooring, and much much more! The first floor has a great flow and layout with a massive living room, formal dining room, eat-in kitchen, half bath, and a freshly remodeled family room! Upstairs you'll find an expansive master suite complete with a full bath. 3 additional large bedrooms and a freshly remodeled bathroom that easily has enough space to bring the laundry to the second floor. Stepping outside to find the circular driveway and 2 stall attached garage before moving to the back yard to enjoy the deck. The basement features an exterior walkout that could easily be converted to living space. All of this for a very affordable price with Frankfort and Herkimer County taxes!

23. 2022-07-06
    historical 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Expansive 4 bed 2.5 bath colonial in New Hartford schools! This home features a brand new furnace, brand new appliances, new flooring, and much much more! The first floor has a great flow and layout with a massive living room, formal dining room, eat-in kitchen, half bath, and a freshly remodeled family room! Upstairs you'll find an expansive master suite complete with a full bath. 3 additional large bedrooms and a freshly remodeled bathroom that easily has enough space to bring the laundry to the second floor. Stepping outside to find the circular driveway and 2 stall attached garage before moving to the back yard to enjoy the deck. The basement features an exterior walkout that could easily be converted to living space. All of this for a very affordable price with Frankfort and Herkimer County taxes!

24. 2022-07-01
    listed $215,000 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Expansive 4 bed 2.5 bath colonial in New Hartford schools! This home features a brand new furnace, brand new appliances, new flooring, and much much more! The first floor has a great flow and layout with a massive living room, formal dining room, eat-in kitchen, half bath, and a freshly remodeled family room! Upstairs you'll find an expansive master suite complete with a full bath. 3 additional large bedrooms and a freshly remodeled bathroom that easily has enough space to bring the laundry to the second floor. Stepping outside to find the circular driveway and 2 stall attached garage before moving to the back yard to enjoy the deck. The basement features an exterior walkout that could easily be converted to living space. All of this for a very affordable price with Frankfort and Herkimer County taxes!

25. 2022-03-13
    historical
26. 2021-12-23
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
27. 2021-12-13
    listed $225,000 Active
28. 2021-01-14
    historical
29. 2020-12-07
    listed $215,000
30. 1997-10-03
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,205 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,306 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$5,205
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$9,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+326.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $320,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $362,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $379,900 CNYIS
• 2022-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $221,450 Public Records
• 2022-09-06 Sold (MLS) $221,450 CNYIS
• 2022-07-06 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $215,000 CNYIS
• 2022-03-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-12-23 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2021-12-13 Listed $225,000 CNYIS
• 2021-01-14 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2020-12-07 Listed $215,000 CNYIS
• 1997-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,205 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.