12339 Valley Lake Ct

Innsbrook, MO 63390

$100,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $396/mo
• Annual: $4,748/yr
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.96%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#620 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wright City R-II Of Warren County (town): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #179 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wright City East Elem (282 students, 48% FRL); Wright City High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 536 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 0.8% in Innsbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.