12339 Valley Lake Ct · Innsbrook, MO 63390

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1990 2.89 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at Valley Lake Estates! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home sits on approximately 2.89 acres and offers a peaceful, private setting with plenty of potential. The property features a detached 2-car garage with an enclosed storage area, a large back patio with attached covered porch, and a beautiful yard. The home will require repairs and updates, including roof repairs (currently not leaking) and replacement of the forced-air heating unit. Being sold in as-is condition, this property is ideal for an investor, handyman, or buyer looking to create their own retreat. Enjoy the privacy, acreage, and possibilities this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Large back patio
• Private setting
• 2.89 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• LARGE BACK PATIO
• ATTACHED COVERED PORCH
• PRIVATE SETTING
• APPROXIMATELY 2.89 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,084 (source: assessor); Lot size approximately 2.89 acres
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: Part of Valley Lake Estates association; no association amenities or fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Community water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level
• Construction: Steel siding
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms, both on the main level
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 0.8% in Innsbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#620 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wright City R-II Of Warren County (town): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #179 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wright City East Elem (282 students, 48% FRL); Wright City High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 536 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.96%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $8,966
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $40,136
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63390

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $546/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-08
   remarks 667-char remark
2. 2026-06-08
   listed $100,000 Pending 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $546 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$424/yr (+$35/mo · 77.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$546
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$791
• After-tax cash flow: $3,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wright City R-II Of Warren County
• NCES district ID: 2932310
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,573
• Composite: 32.19/100
• National rank: #5781
• State rank: #179 of 324 in MO

Livability — Innsbrook

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #21425

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,856

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.69%
• Current HPI: 188.5856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Listed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $546 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.