169 Lower Valley Rd #6

Kalispell, MT 59901

$130,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 215 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,578/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$450
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,219/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (11.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment D-.
• Flathead H S (town): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #55 of 116 in MT (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #69 of 293 statewide, top 27%, 302 students, 0% FRL); Somers Middle School (math 44% / reading 63%, grade C+, #23 of 146 statewide, top 15%, 253 students, 0% FRL); Flathead High School (math 22% / reading 50%, grade F, #50 of 132 statewide, top 37%, 1,626 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 281 units permitted in Flathead County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flathead County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.1% in Kalispell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.