169 Lower Valley Rd #6 · Kalispell, MT 59901

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 174 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $178k · 27% under $450/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen
• Built 2022

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with management; Association fee $450 monthly (includes water, sewer, trash); Land is leased

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Cable available; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Built by Dutch Housing / Champion Homes; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Level lot/topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating
• Interior features: High speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.1% in Kalispell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment D-.
• Flathead H S (town): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #55 of 116 in MT (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 683 active listings in the ZIP; 281 units permitted in Flathead County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flathead County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.76%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,536
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1340 Willow Glen Dr #31	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	1mo	$158,000	$137	61
1340 Willow Glen Dr #9	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	12mo	$110,000	$90	61
1340 Willow Glen Dr #19	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	5mo	$179,000	$155	58
1340 Willow Glen Dr #26	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	5mo	$168,000	$146	58
50 Twin Acres Dr #4	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	15mo	$209,900	$156	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,507
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $34,064
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59901

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 154 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $130,000
19. 2026-03-30
    price $140,000
20. 2026-02-02
    price $148,000
21. 2026-01-22
    status Active
22. 2026-01-11
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2025-12-27
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$832
• After-tax cash flow: $4,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flathead H S
• NCES district ID: 3015420
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,712
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5115
• State rank: #55 of 116 in MT

Livability — Kalispell

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #6399

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Flathead County · 94,027 people
• City population: 63,161
• Metro: Kalispell, MT
• Population (ZIP): 63,161
• Household income: $72,523
• Rent vs Own: 30.0% rent · 70.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1577.0

Population outlook (Flathead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,002 people
• By 2030: 113,362 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 122,245 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 129,517 · +19.9%
• By 2075: 146,737 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 155,045 · +43.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Flathead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 31.8% · R 65.5% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+33.4 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -698.78%
• Current HPI: 225.6792
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Kalispell, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $130,000 MRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $140,000 MRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $148,000 MRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-01-11 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $155,000 MRMLS