70020 Balk Rd

Sturgis, MI 49091

$149,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,199/yr
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (17.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $123k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sturgis Public Schools (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #413 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eastwood School (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #915 of 1,397 statewide, top 66%, 665 students, 71% FRL); Sturgis Middle School (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #415 of 493 statewide, top 85%, 643 students, 67% FRL); Sturgis High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 993 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $149k implies a 494% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Sturgis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.