70020 Balk Rd · Sturgis, MI 49091

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1984 0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Ranch manufactured home sitting on . 92 acres in a nice country setting and yet close to everything. This home has many features including: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Open floor plan that has nice flow. Newer roof on both the garage and the home. Lennox Central air unit. Vinyl sided. Some TLC required. Was being used as a rental, and some paint, flooring, etc could make this your dream country home. The backyard is large and peaceful with a storage shed and a garden area. There is a nice 3 season room off of the back of the home. SELLER WILL NOT PAY FOR ANY INSPECTIONS. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS-IS. The home recently appraised for $150,000, so it is definitely priced to sell. Call and set up your personal showing today.

Key facts

• Vinyl sided
• Newer roof
• Country setting

Tags

• RANCH MANUFACTURED HOME
• COUNTRY SETTING
• NEWER ROOF
• LENNOX CENTRAL AIR UNIT
• VINYL SIDED
• LARGE PEACEFUL BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas available and connected; Natural gas water heater; Cable connected
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family home; One-story entry
• Construction: Built in 1984; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Shed(s) on the property; Paved road access; Well water

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.8% in Sturgis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Sturgis Public Schools (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #413 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $149k implies a 494% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $123,154 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-17,857
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,670
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49091

• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $354/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $142	+0% $100	+5% $58	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $51	+0% $100	+5% $149	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $138	base $100	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $149,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-05-31
   listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $354 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$970/yr (+$81/mo · 273.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$354
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$328
• After-tax cash flow: $1,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sturgis Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633090
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,702
• Composite: 21.95/100
• National rank: #8220
• State rank: #413 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sturgis

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,448

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,726 people
• By 2030: 57,030 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 53,266 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 49,343 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 40,441 · -31.1%
• By 2100: 31,981 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+12.3 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.64%
• Current HPI: 205.9474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+609.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $149,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $149,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-12-20 Sold (MLS) $25,100 REALCOMP
• 2011-12-20 Sold (MLS) $25,100 SW Michigan MLS
• 2011-11-25 Listed $21,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-11-25 Listed $21,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $354 · -77.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.