8438 Hickory Tree Dr

Machesney Park, IL 61115

$108,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$571
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$884
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-679/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.84%
• Cash to close: $30,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-679/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $753 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Donald C Parker Early Educ Center (553 students, 0% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #488 of 665 statewide, top 74%, 957 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.