8438 Hickory Tree Dr · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$108,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition Est $118k · 7% under $884/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perched atop a scenic hill in a welcoming 55+ community, this beautifully maintained home offers comfort, tons of space, and easy living all on one level. Step inside to discover an inviting split-bedroom floor plan designed for privacy, with oversized rooms that provide plenty of space to relax and entertain. Some rooms freshly painted and move-in ready! The massive walk-in closet in the primary bedroom will be the envy of the others! The heart of the home is a chef's kitchen featuring ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and all appliances included-perfect for preparing meals or hosting guests and family. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the open feel throughout. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets on the double decks, where elevated views create a peaceful retreat. Whether you're downsizing or looking for a low-maintenance lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes with style and functionality. Don't miss you chance to own this gem in a friendly, well-maintained community!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Not a land lease; No special service area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Approximately 21–25 years old
• Exterior features: Located in an adult community; Lot listed as mobile home

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (22 x 15)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom (15 x 14); Bedroom (14 x 12); Bedroom (14 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bedroom with full bath
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Family room; Living room; Dining room; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-679/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Donald C Parker Early Educ Center (553 students, 0% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #488 of 665 statewide, top 74%, 957 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $753 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.

Recommended offer $100,712 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,504
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8401 Tamarack Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-2%)	1mo	$118,450	$56	87
5631 Irving Blvd	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,052 (-6%)	7mo	$110,000	$54	69
5332 Cypress Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,926 (-12%)	8mo	$100,000	$52	54
8571 Summerwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-12%)	13mo	$49,000	$26	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-20,677
• Equity at exit: $16,237

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-20,316
• Equity at exit: $9,416

Cash invested: $30,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,634/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$884
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,072

Max offer price $100,712

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $19	-5% $-19	+0% $-57	+5% $-94	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-136	+0% $-57	+5% $22	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-29	base $-57	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,225
• Closing costs: $3,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6410 Harvest Ln Machesney Park, IL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1535	$2,000	$1.30	15d	2	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $884 · $10,608/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $108,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $108,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on marketlisting id $108,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $110,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Perched atop a scenic hill in a welcoming 55+ community, this beautifully maintained home offers comfort, tons of space, and easy living all on one level. Step inside to discover an inviting split-bedroom floor plan designed for privacy, with oversized rooms that provide plenty of space to relax and entertain. Some rooms freshly painted and move-in ready! The massive walk-in closet in the primary bedroom will be the envy of the others! The heart of the home is a chef's kitchen featuring ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and all appliances included-perfect for preparing meals or hosting guests and family. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the open feel throughout. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets on the double decks, where elevated views create a peaceful retreat. Whether you're downsizing or looking for a low-maintenance lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes with style and functionality. Don't miss you chance to own this gem in a friendly, well-maintained community!

19. 2026-05-05
    listed $110,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Perched atop a scenic hill in a welcoming 55+ community, this beautifully maintained home offers comfort, tons of space, and easy living all on one level. Step inside to discover an inviting split-bedroom floor plan designed for privacy, with oversized rooms that provide plenty of space to relax and entertain. Some rooms freshly painted and move-in ready! The massive walk-in closet in the primary bedroom will be the envy of the others! The heart of the home is a chef's kitchen featuring ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and all appliances included-perfect for preparing meals or hosting guests and family. Natural light fills the home, enhancing the open feel throughout. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets on the double decks, where elevated views create a peaceful retreat. Whether you're downsizing or looking for a low-maintenance lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes with style and functionality. Don't miss you chance to own this gem in a friendly, well-maintained community!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,100
• − Property taxes: −$1,634
• − Insurance: −$544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$10,608
• − Depreciation: −$3,168
• Taxable loss: −$1,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $-224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good curb appeal and move-in ready. It has a good roof, exterior, and landscaping, and only needs some exterior painting and landscaping maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $110,000 NWIAR