1374 Scotch Hollow Rd

Ginger Blue, MO 64854

$120,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 885 sqft · Built 2023 · Other · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $845/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-453/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#812 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mcdonald County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #192 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.