1374 Scotch Hollow Rd · Ginger Blue, MO 64854

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 885 sqft · Other public records · 197 Days on market

Built 2023 4.00 ac lot $136/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Acres are included with this Homestead Home. I named it Peaceful Meadows because the location is very peace! Very little traffic with good neighbors! And only 2 miles from Noel. This home has an open floor plan with a loft. Included is a large wood stove for heating and a wood cookstove. There is electricity but you'll need to haul in water. And the toilet is compost. The view from every window is stunning and peaceful. A beautiful homestead waiting for you!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 4 acres
• Wood cookstove

Tags

• 4 ACRES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE WOOD STOVE
• WOOD COOKSTOVE
• COMPOST TOILET
• STUNNING VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#812 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mcdonald County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #192 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $84,525 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,493
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -65.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $33,286
• Equity at exit: $76,613

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $99,380
• Equity at exit: $139,962

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64854

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $314/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $113,335

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-4	+0% $-38	+5% $-72	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-71	+0% $-38	+5% $-4	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-7	base $-38	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2025-12-03
    listed $120,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    4 Acres are included with this Homestead Home. I named it Peaceful Meadows because the location is very peace! Very little traffic with good neighbors! And only 2 miles from Noel. This home has an open floor plan with a loft. Included is a large wood stove for heating and a wood cookstove. There is electricity but you'll need to haul in water. And the toilet is compost. The view from every window is stunning and peaceful. A beautiful homestead waiting for you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $314 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$850/yr (+$71/mo · 270.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$314
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$811
• − Management: −$811
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$626
• After-tax cash flow: $173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcdonald County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2920610
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,301
• Composite: 31.28/100
• National rank: #6017
• State rank: #192 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ginger Blue

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #812
• US rank: #24354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,867

Population outlook (McDonald County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,753 people
• By 2030: 21,154 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 19,946 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 18,666 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 16,201 · -25.5%
• By 2100: 14,550 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 23% Pacific Islander 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 11%

Political lean MEDSL · McDonald

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+66.6 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.16%
• Current HPI: 155.1317
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $120,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+98.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $314 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.