741 Julia Dr

Comfort, TX 78013-2030

$259,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 1224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-300/mo
• Annual: $-3,597/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (36.3% below list).
• It's been on market 1224 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#815 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comfort ISD (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Comfort El (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 497 students, 65% FRL); Comfort Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 243 students, 54% FRL); Comfort H S (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 364 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.8% in Comfort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.