415 Lafayette St

Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$53,000A-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 1850 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $566/mo
• Annual: $6,792/yr
• Cap rate: 19.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.77%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 2.39%
• Cash to close: $14,840

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $932 of equity ($366 loan paydown + $566 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy School (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,632 of 2,108 statewide, top 78%, 462 students, 55% FRL); Ogdensburg Free Academy (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,030 of 1,100 statewide, top 94%, 714 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $53k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.