415 Lafayette St · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$53,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1850 2,618 sqft lot Est $79k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Such a great home on a quiet street just blocks from the St Lawrence Seaway, high school and shopping. It has had some major updates including a new roof, furnace, flooring, and numerous cosmetic upgrades. It features 2 large sitting rooms, eat-in kitchen, and full bath on the main floor. With a front and back staircase to the upstairs, you'll find another full bath, 3 bedrooms, and another room that could be an office, den, or 4th bedroom. Call today for a showing!

Key facts

• New furnace
• New flooring
• Cosmetic upgrades

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW FLOORING
• COSMETIC UPGRADES
• LARGE SITTING ROOMS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $932 of equity ($366 loan paydown + $566 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $53k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $53,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.77%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,540
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
616 Elizabeth St	0.18mi	4/1.5	1,492 (+4%)	5mo	$78,000	$52	78
906 Franklin St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,328 (-7%)	4mo	$47,000	$35	76
931 Elizabeth St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,550 (+8%)	6mo	$88,000	$57	67
1114 Pickering St	0.34mi	4/1.0	1,550 (+8%)	6mo	$17,000	$11	65
624 Morris St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (-9%)	6mo	$42,000	$32	62
924 Caroline St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (+10%)	6mo	$86,500	$55	62
123 Franklin St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-3%)	4mo	$119,000	$86	56
1011 New York Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,384 (-3%)	6mo	$116,000	$84	51
625 Mansion Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,366 (-4%)	3mo	$80,000	$59	47
1013 Lafayette St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,272 (-11%)	7mo	$170,000	$134	46
130 Paterson St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (-14%)	4mo	$15,500	$13	38
519 Riverside Ave	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,623 (+14%)	7mo	$76,000	$47	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $37,275
• Equity at exit: $18,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $89,294
• Equity at exit: $24,435

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,623/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $53,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $581	+0% $566	+5% $551	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $466	-5% $516	+0% $566	+5% $616	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $593	-0.5pp $579	base $566	+0.5pp $552	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending 470-char remark

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   Such a great home on a quiet street just blocks from the St Lawrence Seaway, high school and shopping. It has had some major updates including a new roof, furnace, flooring, and numerous cosmetic upgrades. It features 2 large sitting rooms, eat-in kitchen, and full bath on the main floor. With a front and back staircase to the upstairs, you'll find another full bath, 3 bedrooms, and another room that could be an office, den, or 4th bedroom. Call today for a showing!

2. 2026-04-09
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   Such a great home on a quiet street just blocks from the St Lawrence Seaway, high school and shopping. It has had some major updates including a new roof, furnace, flooring, and numerous cosmetic upgrades. It features 2 large sitting rooms, eat-in kitchen, and full bath on the main floor. With a front and back staircase to the upstairs, you'll find another full bath, 3 bedrooms, and another room that could be an office, den, or 4th bedroom. Call today for a showing!

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $53,000 Active 470-char remark

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   Such a great home on a quiet street just blocks from the St Lawrence Seaway, high school and shopping. It has had some major updates including a new roof, furnace, flooring, and numerous cosmetic upgrades. It features 2 large sitting rooms, eat-in kitchen, and full bath on the main floor. With a front and back staircase to the upstairs, you'll find another full bath, 3 bedrooms, and another room that could be an office, den, or 4th bedroom. Call today for a showing!

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $53,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   Such a great home on a quiet street just blocks from the St Lawrence Seaway, high school and shopping. It has had some major updates including a new roof, furnace, flooring, and numerous cosmetic upgrades. It features 2 large sitting rooms, eat-in kitchen, and full bath on the main floor. With a front and back staircase to the upstairs, you'll find another full bath, 3 bedrooms, and another room that could be an office, den, or 4th bedroom. Call today for a showing!

5. 2021-10-12
   soldstatus $16,000 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   If you're looking for a reasonably priced house in a quiet neighborhood then this is your house. The home needs total renovations and is priced accordingly. House has 4 bedrooms, full 2 bathrooms, large living room/dining room space. The house also has vinyl siding and replacement windows.

6. 2021-06-21
   listed $20,000 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   If you're looking for a reasonably priced house in a quiet neighborhood then this is your house. The home needs total renovations and is priced accordingly. House has 4 bedrooms, full 2 bathrooms, large living room/dining room space. The house also has vinyl siding and replacement windows.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,623 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,623 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$1,623
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $6,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $5,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+165.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $53,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $53,000 SLCMLS
• 2021-10-12 Sold (MLS) $16,000 SLCMLS
• 2021-06-21 Listed $20,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,623 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.