11919 NW 23rd Dr

Gainesville, FL 32609

$265,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,997/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-252/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-252/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alachua Elementary School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 326 students, 70% FRL); A. L. Mebane Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 332 students, 61% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $265k implies a 588% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,997/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.