11919 NW 23rd Dr · Gainesville, FL 32609

$265,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2005 1.23 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Located in the quiet Seminole Woods community, this 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers over 2,400 square feet of open living space on a generous 1.23-acre lot. The interior features new flooring throughout and a functional kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances, a large island with a sit-in bar, and a double-door refrigerator and freezer. Recent exterior improvements include a brand-new deck and a newly installed well, providing added value and peace of mind for the next owner. The property is zoned Agricultural, making it an ideal choice for those looking to maintain a small hobby farm or keep animals. The zoning specifically allows for up t

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• New flooring
• Large island

Tags

• QUIET SEMINOLE WOODS COMMUNITY
• NEW FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• DOUBLE-DOOR REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-252/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alachua Elementary School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 326 students, 70% FRL); A. L. Mebane Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 332 students, 61% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,997/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $265k implies a 588% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,660 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,279
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,149
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,178/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,023

Max offer price $261,295

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $54	+0% $-21	+5% $-96	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-100	+0% $-21	+5% $58	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $46	base $-21	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $265,000
3. 2026-02-27
   price $270,000
4. 2026-02-11
   price $275,000
5. 2026-01-29
   listed $279,900 Active
6. 1985-10-01
   soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,021/yr (+$85/mo · 86.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,178
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,183
• After-tax cash flow: $932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+588.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,178 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.