7810 Falcon Dr

Corpus Christi, TX 78414

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$465
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-586/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-586/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Corpus Christi ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #562 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mireles El (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 611 students, 42% FRL); Adkins Middle (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 956 students, 48% FRL); Harold T Branch Academy For Career & Technical Ed (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 256 students, 72% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Corpus Christi ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $200k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.