4025 N Bluewater Dr

Hernando, FL 34442

$169,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $358/mo
• Annual: $4,294/yr
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 447 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.7% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.