4025 N Bluewater Dr · Hernando, FL 34442

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2021 4,721 sqft lot Est $130k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful, like-new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled in the sought-after Lake Park community of Hernando, Florida. Designed with a desirable split floor plan, this home offers both privacy and functionality, featuring an open-concept living area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen includes ample pantry storage, and a dedicated laundry room adds convenience. Offered fully furnished, this home is truly move-in ready—ideal for full-time living, a seasonal retreat, or an investment opportunity. Step outside to enjoy your private, fenced backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The peaceful lake community invites you to take evening strolls or bike r

Key facts

• Ample pantry storage
• Lake community
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• AMPLE PANTRY STORAGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• LAKE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Paved parking; 1 total parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Single wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Cleared lot; Waterfront access; Waterfront frontage; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Tile flooring; Central air; Heat pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,600
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4151 E Fargo Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	5mo	$45,000	$47	87
3910 N Bluewater Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	11mo	$130,000	$135	80
3762 N Webb Pt	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	12mo	$182,000	$169	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,608
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $25,272
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,682/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $406	+0% $358	+5% $310	+10% $262
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $285	+0% $358	+5% $431	+10% $503
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $401	base $358	+0.5pp $314	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $169,000 Active
17. 2026-04-03
    historical
18. 2026-03-23
    price $165,000
19. 2026-02-16
    listed $169,000 Active
20. 2025-03-19
    historical
21. 2024-10-04
    listed $185,000 Active
22. 2024-06-28
    price $185,000
23. 2024-05-02
    historical
24. 2024-03-25
    listed $225,000 Active
25. 2022-05-18
    soldstatus $137,500
26. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus $12,000
27. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus $12,000
28. 2018-08-18
    listed $14,900
29. 2018-08-18
    listed $14,900
30. 1996-10-22
    soldstatus $19,500
31. 1996-04-01
    soldstatus $17,500
32. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $6,500
33. 1985-09-01
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,682 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,682 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,682
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$396
• After-tax cash flow: $3,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1369.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $169,000 RACC
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $185,000 RACC
• 2024-05-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $12,000 RACC
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $12,000 MLS PIN
• 2018-08-18 Listed $14,900 RACC
• 2018-08-18 Listed $14,900 MLS PIN
• 1996-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records
• 1996-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records
• 1985-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,682 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.