515 Millers Chapel Rd

Baileyton, TN 37745

$99,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,024/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $229/mo
• Annual: $2,753/yr
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#364 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Baileyton Elementary (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 434 students, 0% FRL); North Greene High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #163 of 332 statewide, top 51%, 314 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 58% district-wide (58 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.